---
title: "How to predict technology flops - The Intercom Blog"
description: "Technology flops share a common trait: they fail to perform a clear job for customers. The Segway, for instance, offered marginal speed and height advantages that only appealed to niche markets like tourists and security guards, not the global walking market it targeted. Google Glass and Google Wave also suffered from impressive technology without a defined use case, leaving them without a job to be done. In contrast, disruptive products like modern weather apps succeed by precisely understanding the simple jobs customers actually need, such as knowing if it will rain soon. Game-changing products like the iPhone combine new technology with concrete, useful applications, focusing on what users can do rather than what the product does, and 47% of first movers fail because they cannot explain their product’s job."
---

# How to predict technology flops - The Intercom Blog

[Intercom](https://yomu.fyi/company/intercom) · Oct 13, 2026

**Type:** Explainer

## Summary

Technology flops share a common trait: they fail to perform a clear job for customers. The Segway, for instance, offered marginal speed and height advantages that only appealed to niche markets like tourists and security guards, not the global walking market it targeted. Google Glass and Google Wave also suffered from impressive technology without a defined use case, leaving them without a job to be done. In contrast, disruptive products like modern weather apps succeed by precisely understanding the simple jobs customers actually need, such as knowing if it will rain soon. Game-changing products like the iPhone combine new technology with concrete, useful applications, focusing on what users can do rather than what the product does, and 47% of first movers fail because they cannot explain their product’s job.

## Takeaways

- Technology flops fail because they do not perform a clear job for customers; the Segway targeted the global walking market but only served niche uses like tourism and security patrol.
- Disruptive products often succeed not through breakthrough technology but by better defining the jobs customers need, as seen with weather apps that answer simple questions like ‘Will it rain soon?’
- First movers often fail (47% rate) because they cannot explain what their product enables users to do, allowing fast followers to observe emergent use cases and deliver a focused product.

## FAQ

### Why did the Segway fail to achieve mass adoption?

The Segway offered marginal speed and height advantages that only appealed to niche markets like tourists and security guards, not the global walking market it targeted. It failed to perform a common job for most people.

### How can a product avoid being a technology flop?

Products should focus on the jobs customers actually need, not just the technology itself. Successful products like the iPhone present new technology with concrete, useful applications, showing what users can do rather than what the product does.

### What is the risk of being a first mover?

47% of first movers fail because they cannot explain what their product enables users to do. Fast followers can observe emergent use cases and deliver a product for those jobs.

**Tags:** [Innovation](https://yomu.fyi/topic/innovation), [Jobs-to-be-Done](https://yomu.fyi/topic/jobs-to-be-done), [Product Strategy](https://yomu.fyi/topic/product-strategy)

- Source: [Intercom](https://www.intercom.com/blog/how-to-predict-technology-flops)
- Source URL: https://www.intercom.com/blog/how-to-predict-technology-flops
- Ingested by Yomu: 2026-10-13T18:00:52.109Z

[Read original post](https://www.intercom.com/blog/how-to-predict-technology-flops)